The EUR / USD pair is still trading in the green zone against the background of the publication of strong data on economic activity in the eurozone and possible changes in the monetary policy of the Fed in the coming months.
The data on PMI of the manufacturing and services sectors in the EU published on Friday, unexpectedly for many traders, turned out to be higher than the forecast values, raising investors' optimism about the prospects for the development of the region's economy in the medium term. While similar figures in the US came out lower than last month, heightening concerns about the economic slowdown and easing of the Fed's monetary policy. As a result, the EUR / USD pair ended the week with a growth of 1.48%, which many investors view as one of the signals for the completion of the long-term bearish trend in this currency pair.
Today in the first half of the day the main driver of the market will probably be the index from the IFO Institute in Germany. Experts predict a decline in all three indices (an index of business expectations, assessments of the current situation and business climate), so if this information is confirmed, the EUR / USD pair may have a local pressure and will resume its downward movement. At the American session, the main influence on the price will be on the situation on stock exchanges and geopolitical news, since today there are no important statistical reports in the US economic calendar.
On the graph, a rising wave continues to develop locally, within which the price was able to overcome resistance at the level of 1.1345. Therefore, in the medium term, we can count on further growth of quotations in the direction of the level of 1.1430, and possibly higher.
· Resistance levels: 1.1430, 1.1450, 1.1500.
· Levels of support: 1.1325, 1.1290, 1.1210.
The main scenario is a correction to the area of 1.1325 and a movement to 1.1430.
The alternative scenario - growth to 1.1430 from current levels.
The market maintains a positive news background, which contributes to the further development of the upward movement. Therefore, within the day, we give preference to longs that should be considered near the level of 1.1325.