Fundamental analytics

EUR / USD pair is under pressure today


EUR / USD was in the red zone during the Asian session due to a recovery in the dollar index.


Major world indices are trading with a decline today, interest in the dollar, as one of the main defensive assets, has grown again. Investors react negatively to news from the US. There are ongoing inter-party negotiations on the formation of a new bill on measures to stimulate the economy, but, most likely, the Senate will not be able to approve it until the presidential elections. After another round of negotiations, Nancy Pelosi announced this news.


An additional factor of pressure on the EUR / USD pair is news from Germany. According to the Robert Koch Institute, on Wednesday, the country set a new maximum for the number of detected cases of COVID-19 infection - 11,287 people. The epidemiological situation in the country continues to deteriorate. In the near future, the authorities may tighten quarantine measures, which will increase pressure on economic activity in the country. According to the data released today by Gfk for the month, the consumer climate index in Germany fell from -1.7 to -3.1 points. The data indicate a decline in consumer activity in the coming months.


In the economic calendar today it is worth paying attention to the publication of weekly data on the US labor market and a report on sales in the secondary housing market.


On the chart, the currency pair yesterday tested a fairly strong resistance level - 1.1865. Today we can see the formation of a pullback movement in the direction of the 1.1800 mark.


· Resistance levels: 1.1865, 1.1905, 1.2010.


· Support levels: 1.1820, 1.1800, 1.1750.


The main scenario - a decline to 1.1800.


An alternative scenario - a breakdown of the resistance at 1.1865 and growth to 1.1905.


The current fundamental outlook is moderately negative. We consider shorts from the level 1.1865.


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