Fundamental analytics

EUR / USD is trading near 1.19 again

EURUSD

The EUR / USD pair is trading in the green zone on Friday. The main driver of the growth of the currency pair is the US dollar, the index of which has fallen in price by almost 0.1% since the beginning of the day.

 

The weakening of the dollar began on Thursday. Investors reacted negatively to the weak data on the US labor market. During the reporting week, the number of applications for unemployment benefits increased by 742 thousand, against the forecast of 707 thousand. The data indicates that the second wave of the pandemic is increasing pressure on the labor market and after several weeks of decline, the number of unemployed in the country began to grow again. In total, more than 20 million people already receive unemployment benefits in the United States.

 

After weak data on the labor market, US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin dealt a new blow to the national currency. A letter sent to the Fed was published today, in which the Treasury Department is demanding the return of $ 455 billion, which were allocated within the framework of the program of economic assistance and were not spent. The FRS believes that all these funds should be directed not to the implementation of the lending program for businesses, local authorities and non-profit organizations.

 

Economic problems and a difficult situation with the pandemic remain a limitation for the growth of the euro. On the eve, Germany reported a record number of COVID-19 infected per day. The country has identified 23,648 new cases of infection. The number of infected continues to grow despite the partial lockdown introduced in the country 1.5 weeks ago. To contain the pandemic, the EU authorities may already in the 2nd half of December issue a limited permit for the use of the vaccine from Pfizer & BioNtech and Moderna Inc. This was stated by the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen.

 

Today, there are no important events in the economic calendar of the United States and Europe. We monitor the situation on the stock market and the risk appetite of investors.

The currency pair cannot cope with the resistance at 1.1890 in any way. On the third try, the bulls have more chances to break this mark. In this case, we can count on updating the local maximum of 1.1920.

 

· Resistance levels: 1.1890, 1.1920, 1.2010.

 

· Support levels: 1.1815, 1.1785, 1.1700.

 

The main scenario is a decline to 1.1840 and an increase in the direction of 1.1920.

 

An alternative scenario is consolidation in the range of 1.1815-1.1890.

 

The current fundamental outlook is neutral. We prioritize longs around the level of 1.1840.