Fundamental analytics

EUR / USD is not yet able to overcome the 1.18 level

EURUSD

The EUR / USD pair is holding today near the yesterday highs. At the same time, the news about the suspension of negotiations on Brexit and a sharp increase in the number of COVID-19 cases in Germany have a strong restraining effect on the price.

 

A spokesman for Boris Johnson stated today that the UK sees no reason to resume Brexit negotiations until the EU authorities change their approach. Britain is demanding concessions from the EU on a number of key issues. Only in this case negotiations can be continued. At the same time, the negotiating groups will remain in touch for consultations. Unexpected actions by the British side significantly increase the likelihood of a breakdown in negotiations and a UK exit from the EU without an agreement.

 

According to the Robert Koch Institute, a sharp increase in the number of patients infected with COVID-19 per day was recorded in Germany on Monday. 6,868 new infections were recorded. It’s important to note that the day before only 4,325 new cases of infection were recorded. The data indicate that the epidemiological situation in the leading EU economy remains very difficult. To contain the infection, the country's authorities may tighten quarantine measures, which will have a negative impact on economic activity.

 

In the United States, news about the course of inter-party negotiations remains in the spotlight. On Monday, Nancy Pelosi and Stephen Mnuchin held very constructive talks and became very close on a number of issues. The negotiations will continue today.

In the economic calendar today it is worth paying attention to the publication of data on issued building permits in the United States. The indicator is expected to grow from 1.476 million to 1.520 million.

 

EUR / USD approached strong resistance at 1.1800. Today we can expect testing of this mark and the formation of topping signals. It is possible to count on the continuation of the bullish impulse only after consolidation above 1.1800.

 

· Resistance levels: 1.1800,1.1865, 1.1905.

 

· Support levels: 1.1750, 1.1700, 1.1635.

 

The main scenario - rise to 1.1800 and a downward reversal.

 

An alternative scenario - a breakdown of the resistance at 1.1800 and growth to 1.1865.

 

The current fundamental outlook is neutral. We consider shorts in the range of 1.1785-1.1800.

 

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