Fundamental analytics

FOMC meeting weakened dollar


The EUR / USD pair is trading in the green zone, playing back yesterday's results of the FOMC meeting, at which the regulator kept interest rates at previous levels, but hinted at a possible decline in the future, with the deterioration of economic indicators. Therefore, in the coming months, the market is likely to react quite sharply to the publication of any statistical data from the United States, evaluating them primarily from the standpoint of further actions by the Fed to adjust the basic parameters of monetary policy.

At the same time, despite the fairly strong market reaction, it is still early to talk about the reversal of the global trend of the EUR / USD pair, as earlier the ECB stated about its plans to revise the monetary policy towards easing. This policy, in the medium term, maintains the differential of rates in the US and the Eurozone.

Today in Europe will be published the monthly report of the ECB, which can have a moderate impact on trading. In the US, the focus will be on weekly data on applications for unemployment statistics and indexes from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Experts predict a decline in data on production activity, which, if confirmed, may increase the pressure on the US currency.

On the chart, the price has overcome resistance at 1.1245 and is now approaching the next resistance level of 1.1290. At this mark, we can expect the formation of a local reversal and the development of a correctional wave to 1.1245.

· Resistance levels: 1.1290, 1.1335, 1.1350.

· Levels of support: 1.1245, 1.1210, 1.1165.

The main scenario - testing the level of 1.1290 and a decline to 1.1245, possibly lower.

An alternative scenario - consolidation above 1.1290 and growth to 1.1335.

The overall news background on the market as a whole can be described as neutral, while the price on the chart approached a strong resistance level, therefore, within the day, short positions from 1.1290 can be considered.


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