Fundamental analytics

EUR / USD: follow the statistics from Europe


The second day in a row the EUR / USD pair was trading in the green zone, amid a decline in investor’s interest in the US currency. Today, a two-day FOMC meeting starts, following which the regulator will present new forecasts on key economic indicators and will likely shed light on future plans for the implementation of monetary policy. Investors are betting that the regulator will lower interest rates in the current year, which may adversely affect the position of the US currency in the medium and long term.

In Europe today, the focus will be a large block of important economic statistics and speeches by representatives of the ECB (Mario Draghi and Luis de Gindos). In Germany, indices of current economic conditions and sentiment from the ZEW Institute will be presented. According to both indicators, experts expect a decline, which could put pressure on the EUR / USD pair in the first half of the day. Also today, data on inflation in the Eurozone and the trade balance will be presented.

Today the dollar may have a certain impact, data on the US construction sector and geopolitical news.

On the chart, the bulls managed to return to the level of 1.1220, which allows buyers to continue the correctional movement to 1.1260. Above this level is the area of ​​resistance from which we can expect the formation of a turning movement down.

· Resistance levels: 1.1240, 1.1260, 1.1290.

· Levels of support: 1.1215, 1.1165, 1.1130.

The main scenario is a range in the zone 1.1200-1.1240.

The alternative scenario is a rise to 1.1260 from current levels.

The general fundamental background can now be described as neutral. At the same time, there are no clear signals on the chart to enter the market, therefore we recommend to short, only in the case of an increase in quotations to 1.1260 and higher.


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