Fundamental analytics

EUR / USD: ZEW Institute indices and US retail sales data are in the spotlight


The EUR / USD pair is trading near Monday's lows waiting for the publication of important economic data from Europe and the USA.

Yesterday there was no important economic news on the market, so the trades were fairly calm. Certain pressure on the currency pair was exerted by statements of various international financial organizations, which revised their forecasts regarding the future monetary policy of the Fed and the ECB. Analysts at UBS on the eve said that they expect from the ECB two interest rate cuts in 2019, by 0.10% in September and December. Fitch Ratings, in turn, said yesterday that the Fed is likely to lower the interest rate not as much as financial markets expect, as the statistics in the United States remain strong. Therefore, amid the changed market expectations, the American dollar again gained an advantage over the European currency.

Today in Europe, the focus will be on indices from the ZEW Institute in Germany. Experts predict the release of weaker data than a month earlier, so in the first half of the day the EUR / USD pair will be under pressure.

US today is expected to publish data on industrial production and retail sales. Here, too, expert forecasts are worse than data for the last reporting period. In addition, Tuesday speeches by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and members of the FOMC Kaplan, Bostic and Bowman are scheduled.

On the graph for the day there were no significant changes. Bidding is in the range between the levels of 1.1240-1.1285. Today we expect a retest of the lower limit of the range and the resumption of movement upwards, towards the level of 1.1300.

· Resistance levels: 1.1300, 1.1345, 1.1405.

· Support levels: 1.1240, 1.1200, 1.1130.

The main scenario - retest 1.1240 and the resumption of the upward movement.

Alternative scenario - support breakdown at 1.1240 and a decline to 1.1200.

Bearish signals dominate the market locally, so in the first half of the day we expect a decline in quotations to support at 1.1240, where we can consider intraday longs, in the hope of rising to 1.1300.


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