Fundamental analytics

EUR / USD: Eurozone inflation and US retail sales in the spotlight


The pair EUR / USD on Friday continues to trade in the area of yesterday's intraday highs, while maintaining good opportunities to continue growth.

Support for quotes on the eve was provided by stronger than expected data on German GDP. Investors also reacted positively to reports that two key lobbying groups in Germany (the BDI Industrial Enterprises Association and the BGA Wholesale and Retail Federation) called on the government to strengthen its support for the economy amid growing negative trends.

Today at the European session, the focus will be on data on inflation in the EU. Low inflationary pressures remain a major concern for the ECB. In case of a further decline in the consumer price index, the regulator may continue to soften its monetary policy, which will increase pressure on the European currency.

In the US, the main event of the day will be the October retail sales report. The dollar will also be influenced by geopolitical factors. Positive news about the course of trade negotiations between the USA and China can weaken the demand for the dollar, which many investors see as a protective asset against trade risks.

On the chart, after a slight false breakdown, a fairly strong rebound of the price from 1.0990 took place. Locally, this is a good reversal signal, within which we can expect further development of the upward correctional movement in the direction of the level of 1.1055.

Resistance levels: 1.1055, 1.1090, 1.1130.

Support Levels: 1.0990, 1.0945, 1.0890

The main scenario is an increase to 1.1055 from current levels.

An alternative scenario is a rollback to 1.1000 and an increase to 1.1055.

At the moment, a neutral news background has been formed on the market. On the graph, the signals in favor of the development of the upward corrective movement locally prevail. Inside the day, you can consider buying from the level of 1.1020, but the less risky entry points are at 1.1000.