The EUR / USD pair ended the trading week with moderate growth, amid a global weakening of the dollar, after the Fed signals a possible easing of monetary policy in the coming months. At the same time, investors continue to ignore signals from the ECB, which also does not exclude the possibility of lowering the interest rate and resuming the QE program, to stimulate the economy and inflation.
The next meeting of the ECB is scheduled for July 25, so for the current week, investors will focus on inflation data, which can significantly affect investors' expectations regarding further actions by the regulator. Last week, inflation data in Germany turned out to be higher than market expectations, so experts do not rule out that the figure for the EU as a whole will be slightly better than the forecast, which may support the European currency.
Today, besides the FOMC member John Williams speech, there are no important news in the economic calendar, so, most likely, we are waiting for a fairly quiet trading. The main influence on the currency pair will perform the situation on the stock exchanges and the debt securities market.
On the graph, the upward vector locally retains its relevance, but the price is very close to the intermediate resistance area formed by the levels of 1.2900-1.3000, therefore the potential for the ascending wave remains limited.
· Resistance levels: 1.1300, 1.1345, 1.1405.
· Support levels: 1.1240, 1.1200, 1.1130.
The main scenario - growth to 1.1300 and turn down.
Alternative scenario - decline to 1.1240.
The market has established a neutral news background. There are no good trading signals on the chart locally. In the short term, we recommend considering longs from the strong intermediate support level at 1.1240.