Last week, the EUR / USD currency pair broke off its unsuccessful series, which consisted of three weeks in a row closed with a negative result. Due to the global weakening of the dollar and heightened investor interest in risky assets, the EUR / USD currency pair was able to demonstrate a fairly strong growth, which could be further developed at the beginning of the week.
There are no important economic news on the market today, so geopolitics news and the situation on stock exchanges will remain in the center of investors' attention. Asian markets mostly closed in the green zone, showing a persistent high risk appetite of investors. In the green zone, opened trading and for major European indices. This situation provides local support for the EUR / USD pair, since its growth is now provided solely by increased investor interest in risky assets, rather than the emergence of the fundamental advantages of the euro over the US dollar.
But, there are quite strong pressure factors on the market that can slow down the further growth of the EUR / USD pair. Investors are worried about the heightened trade relations between the US and the EU, amid the conflict with the sponsorship of Airbus and Boeing. Both sides accuse each other of the unreasonable support of the two competing companies, and the further development of this conflict may lead to the introduction of restrictive duties, which will cause a new blow to the development of global trade.
At the weekend, on the IMF meeting the ECB President Mario Draghi noted that during this year he expects the global economy to slow down the growth rates. In addition, he noted the appearance of signs of tension in the banking sector and the slowdown in inflationary processes in the EU economy. Therefore, the bank's forecast for 2019-2020 remains disappointing.
On the chart, the currency pair still maintains the upward direction of movement, trying to get out of the medium-term downward channel. But here, it is worth paying attention to the rather strong local resistance level of 1.1320, near which trading is taking place now. The probability of the formation of a kickback movement from this level remains high, so we can expect the further development of the bull wave with the target at 1.1370 only after the price consolidates above 1.1320.
· Resistance levels: 1.1320, 1.1370, 1.1430.
· Levels of support: 1.1300, 1.1250, 1.1193.
The main scenario - the formation of a reversal at the level of 1.1320.
An alternative scenario - consolidation above 1.1320 and growth to 1.1370.
Fundamental background on the market remains mixed. At the same time, on the chart, the price reached a strong intermediate resistance level, which makes it more relevant within the day to short currency pair from the level of 1.1320.