Fundamental analytics

EUR / USD: ECB meeting and US inflation report in focus

EURUSD

The pair EUR / USD recently updated weekly trading lows awaiting the outcome of the ECB meeting. Pressure on the European currency also had economic forecasts from the largest research institutions in Germany.

According to IfW forecasts, the German economic growth in 2019 will be 0.4% (previously 0.6%). In the 3rd quarter, GDP is expected to decline by 0.3%. According to new forecasts, in 2020 GDP growth will not exceed 1% (previously 1.6%).

DIW expects the German economy to grow by 0.5% this year (previously 0.9%). In 2020, GDP is projected to grow by 1.4% (previously 1.9%). According to DIW estimates, if the UK leaves the EU without an agreement, German economic growth in 2020 could slow down by 0.4%.

Today, the ECB's monetary policy decision will have a major impact on trading. Investors already take into account the price reduction by 0.1%, but it remains likely that the regulator can reduce the rate by 0.2%. The regulator may also resume the asset buyback program and introduce a multi-level system of rates.

United States today is expected to publish a report on inflation, which could affect the decision of the FOMC, which will be held this month.

On the chart, we note the attempts of buyers to return in the range 1.1015-1.1085. If in the near future we will see price fixing above the lower border of the range, the bulls can count not only on a recovery to 1.1085, but also on growth to 1.1155 and above. Otherwise, we expect the development of a bearish trend in the direction of the level of 1.0900.

Resistance levels: 1.1060, 1.1085, 1.1155.

Support levels: 1.1015, 1.0965, 1.0900.

The main scenario is consolidation above 1.1015 and growth to 1.1085 and 1.1155.

An alternative scenario is consolidation below 1.1015 and a decline to 1.0900.

There is great uncertainty in the market before the ECB meeting, so today we recommend that you refrain from trading.

 

 

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