Fundamental analytics

EUR / USD is trying to recover from a 4-day decline


The EUR / USD pair today is trying to recover after 4 days of almost recoilless decline. At the time of writing the review, the currency pair was trading up 0.08%.

The main attention of the market is still focused on the situation on the debt securities market. Today, the yield on 10-year government bonds fell to 1.568%, which puts pressure on the US currency. For comparison, yesterday the yield climbed above 1.6%.

The decline in the level of profitability may be due to the statements of the Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi that the new bill to stimulate the US economy in the amount of $ 1.9 trillion. must be approved by Wednesday morning.

According to IIF chief economist Robin Brooks, the situation on the market now resembles the "fever" of 2013, when the yield of US Treasuries showed strong growth on fears of a premature withdrawal of stimulus measures by the Fed. Then the representatives of the FRS also reacted positively to the growth of yields on debt securities. As a result, in September 2013, in order to stabilize the market situation and limit further growth in government bond yields, the Fed unexpectedly began to curtail economic stimulus measures.

Now the yield on US government bonds is also growing on expectations of increased inflationary pressures and an earlier rollback of stimulus measures. Federal Reserve officials have not yet taken any action on this score, noting that the growth is a reflection of more optimistic forecasts for the recovery of the US economy.

There is no news in the economic calendar today that could have a strong impact on trading. Apparently, the main attention of the market will continue to be focused on the situation on the debt securities market.

On the chart, the currency pair tested yesterday's support level of 1.1840. From the current position, we can expect a correctional growth with the main target at around 1.1950. If the level of 1.1840 is broken, the next target will be the level of 1.1800.

Resistance levels: 1.1950, 1.2050, 1.2100.

· Support levels: 1.1840, 1.1800, 1.1750.

The main scenario is corrective growth towards 1.1950.

An alternative scenario is a breakdown of the support at 1.1840 and a decline to 1.1800.

The current fundamental background is neutral. We consider longs with very moderate risks from the level of 1.1840.


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