Fundamental analytics

EUR / USD – oversold conditions and pound pullback, eased the pressure on Euro


On Thursday, EUR / USD pair produced an interesting session as the main FX pair continued its negative series of four trading days in a row. Like on Wednesday, traders sentiment was influenced by weaker data from Germany, which heightened concerns on the state of the German economy. According to published data, the volume of industrial production in December decreased by 0.4%, while experts predicted the figure to grow by 0.7%.

Later the same day, the situation got worse after European Commission forecast for 2019 was announced, which, seriously cut the forecasts for GDP growth. In 2019, instead of expected 1.9%, officials expect a growth of only 1.3%, as for 2020 the forecast was downgraded from 1.7% to 1.6%. For Germany, the previous forecast for 2019 is also from 1.8% to 1.1%.

Another important news of the day has come from US as Donald Trump announced that he is not going to meet with China leader before March 1. These comments once again raised investor concerns about the global trade risks. The main blow fell on the European currency and European equities after weaker GDP growth in 2019. European Commission noted external factors as the main reason, in particular, a strong decline in demand from China, and the risks of protectionist measures from US (which can be read between the lines)

In the middle of the session, British pound sterling has come to rescue for European currency. GBP displayed positive reaction to the comments of the Bank of England and reports on Brexit negotiations, weakening the dollar for a while. But in the evening, the sellers were able to regain control of the situation.

Today, trading is very inactive, bulls attempts to develop correctional growth are somewhat repulsed, as investors remain pessimistic on European economy. Positive moment for Euro might be the fact that today is the last trading day of the week and, many investors can start a profit-taking, which can lead to the development of a corrective move.

On the chart no technical changes in the market are detected so far. Locally, there is a very stable downward price channel and the price is struggling to leave it. There are no reversal signals on the chart, the downward move to 1.1300 is quite possible where bulls can finally seize the initiative.

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