Fundamental analytics

Brent: Oil market is waiting for release of the industry statistics from the U.S.



Natural gas price just a little before reaching the key support level 2.520 has resumed upward movement and now it’s being traded in the vicinity of 2.600 level. If bulls manage to gain a foothold above the 2.610 mark in the coming days, the price will shift to another trading range with upper boundary at the 2.735 level. If bears get the upper hand here we can see retest of the 2.520 level next week.

Perhaps the data on natural gas inventories, that is to be published today, may produce a solid influence on the market. Analysts expect growth of the indicator by 101B. Correspondingly a higher growth of inventories can put pressure on the natural gas market and lower growth of inventories will provide support to the gas quotes.

Our recommendations: Long-trades from 2.560.


Brent crude grade was traded in the red on Wednesday reacting on movement dynamics of the equity market, that declined actively on growth of concerns regarding aggravation of the situation in global trading.

Investors had deep worries about claims of some mass media on probable restrictions from China on import of rare-earth metals from USA, that are used to produce mobile phones. It’s a retaliation for increased by the U.S. tariffs on Chinese import earlier this month. These announcements didn’t get its official approval so far, but many investors have worries about escalation of the dispute, that might cause serious damage to global economy.

Oil market was able to partially recover after publishing of API data, that recorded a substantial decline in oil inventories by 5,3 million barrels and distillates by 2,1 million barrels. At the same time petroleum inventories rose by 2,7 million barrels according to API estimates. Release of the major report form the U.S. Department of Energy is expected later and analysts also forecast a decline in inventories by 0,85 million barrels in the report. But API data published earlier points, that the actual figure can be much lower than the forecast, that can provide oil market with a significant support. Car travel season is about to start in the U.S., when demand for petroleum is growing heavily, therefore investors expect ending of the tendency for the growth of oil inventories.

On the chart the trading goes in the range between levels 66.00-68.80 this week. Now the price resides almost in the middle of this range, therefore this price channel most likely will retain its actuality. Within intraday time-frame we expect forming of retracing movement from current levels to the region of 66.30 level, where a new bullish wave can be launched in direction of the 68.80 level.

Our recommendations: Long-trades from 66.30.