Fundamental analytics

Brent: Oil market declines on the back of claims about probable meeting of D.Trump and H.Rouhani


On Tuesday U.S. President Donald Trump predicted a trade deal with China after positive comments by Beijing, calming nerves after a round of tariff hikes had sent markets reeling.
Despite soothing rhetoric from USA and China and growth of stock indices oil market still remains under solid pressure. Yesterday in the afternoon oil quotes switched from growth to decline after claims of Donald Trump about probable meeting with Iranian leader Hassan Rouhani.

Earlier the conflict between Iran and USA acted as a serious driver for the growth of oil prices. Last claims of Trump drove to decline of risk premium, that was included in oil prices by traders concerning about potential military clash between USA and Iran.

Today investors expect publishing of fresh data from API on dynamics of inventories, that will form investors’ expectations before release of the main report by US Department of Energy. But it’s likely, that the stronger influence on trading will be caused by geopolitical news linked to the situation in international trading and relationship between USA and Iran.

On the chart a consolidation continues between the 57.50-60.60 levels. There are no signals of price exit beyond the sideways channel so far, therefore in the coming days we expect development of consolidation.

Resistance levels: 60.60, 62.30, 64.30;

Support levels: 57.50, 55.55, 55.00.

Main scenario: Growth towards 60.60.

Alternative scenario: Break of support at 57.50 and decline towards 55.55.

Overall sentiment on the market so far can be described as neutral. Sideways trend within 57.50-60.60 range is in progress on the chart. In short-term we can consider long-trades as well as short-trades for this asset from the boundaries of price channel.

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