Fundamental analytics

Brent: Oil market continues its recovery

Brent

Oil market has closed the previous trading week with quite a confident growth. WTI rose by more than 11,5% and Brent gained 5,9%. On Friday the quotes got support from messages on heavy fire at big refinery in Philadelphia, that refined around 335 thousand barrels per day. Now an estimate of damage scope is being made at refinery.

One more driver for the quotes’ growth is a very tensed situation in the Middle East. It became known on Thursday evening, that Donald Trump has cancelled airstrike on Iranian military targets in the last moment. Military stand-off between two countries brings a substantial menace for oil transporting in this region, that in natural way facilitates the growth in oil prices. Some media reports, that probably on G20 summit the President of France Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel will hold negotiations with Donald Trump in order to convince him to withhold from escalation of economic and military conflict with Tehran.

This week investors also will keep focus on news regarding upcoming OPEC+ meeting. Further prospects of production cuts agreement will be considered during the meeting. According to opinion of many analysts it’s this event, that will have the biggest impact on forming of further trend on oil market.

On the chart after gaining a foothold above 63.30 the price has continued upward movement and now the next target for buyers is the 66.00 level, where the further trend of market movement will be determined.

Resistance levels: 66.00, 68.80, 72.50;

Support levels: 64.10, 63.30, 61.00.

Main scenario: Growth towards 66.00.

Alternative scenario: Stabilizing below 64.10 and decline towards 63.30.

Positive sentiment retains on the market. Bullish signals prevail on the chart. Therefore in short term we give preference to long-positions considering them from the levels 64.10 and 63.30.