Fundamental analytics

Brent: Oil market eases amid uncertainty over U.S.-China trade relationship


Oil market has closed yesterday’s trading session with decline. Brent lost about 1,75% of its price, WTI - 1,55%. Today trading goes in a tight range in the region of yesterday established lows.

Pressure on the price is produced by uncertainty around trade talks of USA and China. Many mass media sources report a presence of dissents between the parties over the range of important questions. In particular CNBC reported a prevailing of pessimistic mood among Chinese officials according to a government source. PRC’s authority is unsatisfied with Trump’s position who doesn’t want to rollback earlier applied tariffs.

Chinese magazine Global Times also reports that it may take a huge period of time to resolve the trade dispute. Contradictions of the sides are apparent. The lingering trade war that has seen the world’s two biggest economies impose tit-for-tat tariffs on each other has dimmed global growth prospects and clouded the outlook for future oil demand. Negotiation process can be slowed down by protests in Hong Kong, which can escalate difficult relationship of the U.S. and China.

Beside news in the area of international trading today investors will monitor the release of weekly data from API.

On the chart we note a failed attempt of bulls to stabilize above the 62.50 mark. The price remains in the 60.00-62.50 range. We can expect intraday decline towards the lower boundary of sideways channel.

Resistance levels:  62.50, 64.00, 65.00;

Support levels:  61.00, 60.00, 58.50.

Main scenario: Break of support at 61.00 and decline towards 60.00.

Alternative scenario: Growth towards 62.50.

Market sentiment is negative. Bearish signals prevail on the chart. We consider short-trades at 62.10 and 62.50.

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