Fundamental analytics

Brent: Phone conversation between the leaders of USA and China facilitated recovery of the oil prices


Oil market has been traded in the green yesterday on the back of substantial improvement of investors’ mood after Donald Trump’s tweet regarding the productive phone call with PRC leader Xi Jinping. These comments significantly increase the chances of reaching the progress in negotiations between USA and China during expected meeting of the countries’ leaders at G20 summit. Yesterday Trump has claimed, that quite a continuous negotiations between two leaders are scheduled during the summit.

Market also continues to follow the news regarding the upcoming summit of OPEC+ countries. According to the information, that was spread by Reuters agency today, the countries has agreed upon transferring the meeting to the 1st or 2nd of July.

Yesterday late in the evening API has published data on oil inventories. According to the data inventories level for the reporting week has decreased by 0,8 million barrels. These figures raise the chances, that data from the US Energy Department will correspond to analysts’ expectations (-1,1 million barrels), that can become a good driver for further growth of the quotes.

On the chart we can see, that locally the sideways channel preserves between the levels 59.50-61.45. Today we record quite a confident bounce of the price off the upper boundary of the sideways channel, therefore within intraday time-frame we expect development of moderate downward movement in direction of the lower border of the marked price channel.

Resistance levels: 61.45, 63.30, 66.00;

Support levels: 59.50, 59.00, 58.00.

Main scenario: Decline towards 59.50.

Alternative scenario: Gaining a foothold above 61.45 and growth towards 63.30.

Trading still goes within the horizontal price channel 59.50-61.45, therefore despite the certain improvement of the sentiment before the afternoon we should consider short-term short-trades of the asset from the 61.45 level.

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