Fundamental analytics

Brent: U.S. crude stocks data might increase pressure on oil market


In recent days oil market is being traded mixed and keeps mostly sideways tone of movement. There are no explicit drivers on the market to form the trend.

Yesterday evening API has published oil inventories data. Indicator rose by 10,5 million barrels substantially increasing probability of publishing weaker data by U.S. Energy Department. Analysts forecast growth of inventories by 2,9 million barrels. It’s a significant factor of pressure for the market indicating forming of oil oversupply in USA. If confirmed by the government data, the build-up would be the biggest U.S. stockpiles rise since February, 2017.  Although losses were limited by comments by U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on a U.S.-Sino trade deal.

Earlier in IMF they lowered forecast on global economy growth in 2019 to 3% which is the lowest since 2008-financial crisis. On this background concerns on the market are growing regarding decline of energy demand in medium and long term producing negative impact on dynamics of oil price action.

On the chart buyers are still unable to gain a foothold above the 59.30 level. Therefore locally more likely for execution is a scenario with forming  of downward movement in direction of the 57.20 level.

Resistance levels:  59.30, 60.00, 61.40;

Alternative levels: 57.20, 55.55, 55.00.

Main scenario: Retest of resistance at 50.30 and decline towards 57.20.

Alternative scenario: Break of resistance at 59.30 and growth towards 60.00.

Moderately-negative sentiment prevails on the market, Bearish signals dominate on the chart. We consider short-positions from the 59.30 level.

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