Fundamental analytics

Brent: Oil market expects the release of reports from the U.S. Energy Department, OPEC and IEA.



The price of natural gas is still being traded at the region of many-months lows on the back of a substantial decline in the level of real demand for this asset.

Last week the U.S. Department of Energy has published new data on dynamics of oil inventories. Actual growth of inventories for reporting week has made 119B while the predicted growth of the indicator was 111B. This data indicates, that demand in gas remains to be on a low level and buyers can just hope for establishing of a hot weather, that will increase consumption level of electricity for air-conditioning and gas is utilized for electricity production.

On the chart the situation is virtually unchanged. Bearish trend is still in place, therefore during opening of positions we should give preference to short-trades of the asset from the strong resistance levels, where the 2.410 mark can be related. The closest support level to the current price resides at the 2.310 mark.

Our recommendations: Short-trades from 2.410.


Oil market remains under pressure on the back of high risks to form the demand and offer imbalance.

Investors have concerns, that further escalation of relationship in international trading will drive to substantial curtailment in global crude oil demand and other energy carriers, that inevitably will lead to decline in price for these assets. In this regard investors’ attention this month will be paid to OPEC+ meeting, that will be held on the 25-26th of June. Further mid-term vector of oil price movement will depend on decisions, that are to be taken during the meeting. Let’s remind, that at the beginning of this year a decision on agreement extension has triggered the growth of oil prices by more than 40%.

This week the major driver for market movement will be the industry reports of the U.S. Department of Energy, OPEC and IEA. This data will help to evaluate the current state of the market and can influence the decisions, that are going to be taken during the OPEC+ meeting.

On the chart the price moved back to the support level 61.40. So far the bulls are capable to keep the price above this mark, therefore within intraday time-frame the prevailing scenario is growth of the quotes towards the 63.30 and 64.40 levels. Correspondingly we should consider going short after stabilizing of the price below 61.40. In this case the next target for price movement will be the 60.00 level.

Our recommendations: Long-trades from 61.40.


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