Fundamental analytics

Brent: Oil market grows expecting release of API report


Oil market retains upward vector amid growth of investors’ risk appetite and emerging of positive industry news.

Yesterday it became known that during the meeting of OPEC+ technical committee they’ll discuss the question regarding changes in production quotas for 2020. Therefore outcome of this meeting might have more tangible impact on the market than it was expected. The OPEC+ joint ministerial monitoring committee, which reports on compliance with the cuts, is due to meet on Thursday in Abu Dhabi. 

Situation on the stock markets also produces positive effect on oil market. The major indices are being traded in the green on the back of easing geopolitical risks. Investors are upbeat expecting resumption of trade talks between USA and China and hope for resolution of protracted trade dispute.

Today investors will focus on API report on oil inventories. Investors hope for further curtailment of crude stocks in US inventories, that may enhance buyers’ positions on the market even more.

On the chart the price has reached the earlier marked target at 62.30 level. Now it’s a key resistance level, which will define further mid-term vector of price movement. In case of stabilizing above it, bulls might reckon on growth towards 66.60. And in case the reversal movement is formed the price might drop to the 57.50 level again.

Resistance levels:  62.30, 64.70, 66.60;

Support levels:  60.75, 59.30, 57.50.

Main scenario: Gaining a foothold above 62.30 and growth towards 64.70.

Alternative scenario: Break of support at 60.95 and decline towards 59.30.

Moderately-positive fundamental sentiment runs the market at the moment. In short-term we consider long-positions from the 62.00 level.