Fundamental analytics

Brent: Ecuador can reduce its oil output by third

Brent

Oil market has closed yesterday’s session with decline, Brent was down 0,2% and WTI was down 0,3%. Pressure on the price was produced by situation on stock markets where major indexes closed trading session in the red. Investors are concerned about new escalation of trade dispute between the USA and China after the White House announced a decision to include into exporting blacklist 28 Chinese firms. This decision may have a solid negative influence on the process of trade negotiations set for 10-11 of October.

API data on oil inventories also weighed in on the prices. According to report oil inventories in the latest week rose by 4,1 million barrels. This suggests, that today’s report of U.S. Energy Department might be worse than market expectations. Analysts forecast growth of crude stocks by 1,4 million barrels.

Bullish factor for the market might be information shared by Energy Ministry of Ecuador that production volume of state company Petroamazonas may drop by third due protests in the country. Let’s remind that Ecuador is one of the biggest oil exporters. In Iraq, unrest resumed overnight in Baghdad’s Sadr City district, though much of the country appeared quieter than it has been for a week.

On the chart the price has tested support at the 57.20 level yesterday.  So far bulls are able to keep the price above this level, therefore a prevailing scenario is development of corrective upward movement in direction of the 61.40 level.

Resistance levels: 58.90, 60.00, 61.40;

Support levels: 57.20, 55.55, 55.00.

Main scenario: Growth in direction 58.90 and 60.00.

Alternative scenario: Break of support at 57.20 and decline towards 55.55.

Moderately-negative sentiment prevails on the market, but on the chart bullish signals are still dominating. Therefore for intraday trading we give preference to long-positions, which should be sought nearby the 57.20 level.

 

 

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