Fundamental analytics

Oil prices are rising after the API report publication


Oil prices today are experiencing a slight increase. Investors are responding to the positive API data on the reserves reduction of 3.7 million barrels. Within the framework of today's Ministry of Energy report, another decrease in oil reserves equal to 1.7 million barrels is also being expected. This information may provide short-term support for oil prices. But the general volatility of the market remains restrained, as all investor attention is now directed at the OPEC meeting, which will be held in Vienna from the 4th to the 5th of December. 


Recently, the Russian Minister of Energy announced that in November Russian progress on the OPEC + agreement completion was estimated at 85%. At the same time, Mr. Novak noted that Russia will express its position on the extension of the agreement during the meeting. 


Fitch released oil prices forecasts for 2020 today. Agency experts believe that the average price for Brent in 2019 will be at $64. In 2020, it is expected to decrease to $62 due to the increasing supply. 


As to the chart, trading is still held in a wide horizontal channel of 60.00-62.90. Within the framework of this flat, we can expect the development of a moderate upward movement in the direction of the 62.90 level.


· Resistance levels: 61.65, 62.90, 64.00;


· Support levels: 60.45, 60.00, 58.50.


The main scenario - growth towards 61.65 


An alternative scenario - a breakdown of support at 60.45 and a decline to 60.00.


The fundamental outlook is moderately positive. Locally, bullish signals prevail on the chart. Within the daily framework, we consider purchases from the level of 60.45.


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