Fundamental analytics

Brent: Oil market recovers after solid decline on Friday


Oil market has closed Friday’s trading session with strong decline on the back of low liquidity linked to the celebrations of Thanksgiving Day in the U.S. and growth of concerns regarding forming of imbalance by way of oversupply.

Pressure on the market was produced by the news over signing by Donald Trump a legislation on human rights in Hong Kong and comments of Russia’s energy minister regarding probable transfer of discussion on production cuts agreement extension to April 2020. Claims of russian minister enhanced concerns of investors regarding dissents in OPEC+. Earlier traders expected extension of an agreement during OPEC+ meeting which is due on December 5.

Today oil prices are trying to recover positions that were lost by the end of last week. Support to the quotes is provided by the situation on stock markets. The major indices are being held in the green pointing to elevated interest of investors to risk. Market also got some extra support from the positive China’s manufacturing PMI data. Index from Caixin is holding above the 50 mark for the fourth consecutive month pointing to manufacturing growth. Factory activity in November in China, the world’s biggest oil importer, increased for the first time in seven months because of rising domestic demand amid government stimulus measures.

On the chart 60.00-62.90 range is still valid. Inside this range we can expect development of moderate upward movement in direction of the 62.90 level.

Resistance levels: 62.90, 64.00, 65.00;

Support levels: 60.80, 60.00, 58.50.

Main scenario: Growth in direction 62.90.

Alternative scenario: Break of support at 60.80 and decline towards 60.00.

Fundamental background is moderately-positive. There no clear signals on the chart. The most safe buy entry points are located nearby the 60.00 level. We can consider long-trades with very moderate risks from the 60.80 level.

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