07, July 2014

Fundamental analysis

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

The last week end was very rich on the macroeconomic statistics. The EUR/USD came under pressure amid the positive macroeconomic data from the United States. The Non-Farm index came significantly better forecasted medians at 288 thousand, besides the upwards revised data for May and April. The overall unemployment rate was also declined by 0.2% to 6.1%, as the hourly wages were increased by 0.2%. Such the strong data point us to a strong U.S. economic growth in the second quarter and now the Fed should decrease pessimism about the prospects for economic development.

The single European currency selling was caused by ECB President Mario Draghi, who said that the low interest rates in the euro area would remain for a long time. As a result, "bears" took control under the situation.

After the negative data publication on the service sector PMI index for the UK in June the investors decided to take profits on long positions. However, we saw a strong decrease in the GBP/USD on Thursday. Despite the positive statistics from the U.S. labor market - the "Bears" were able to push quotes only to the level of 1.7104, after which there was a technical rebound. Sales in the euro / pound cross - course, which set a fresh level for at least the past 20 months, were supported by demand for the British currency against U.S. dollar.

The "Bulls" have made triumph on the USD/JPY for three consecutive days. The positive release non-farm cheered the participants to open the long dollar positions. Against this backdrop, the dollar/yen was able to overcome the figure 102 and consolidate above the resistance level of 102.16.